 |
|
|
|
RATE FORECAST TABLE
 Interest Rates | | | Key central bank rates | | 06 Oct 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | Sep 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 2.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 5.05 | 2.24 | 1.50 | | Japan | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.59 | | Euro Zone | 4.25 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.85 | 4.06 | 3.63 | | United Kingdom | 5.00 | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 5.51 | 5.05 | 3.81 | | 10 year bond yields (local market convention) | | 06 Oct 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | Sep 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 3.48 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 4.10 | 4.30 | 4.63 | 3.80 | 4.03 | | Japan | 1.38 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.68 | 1.56 | 1.69 | | Euro Zone | 3.75 | 3.85 | 3.95 | 4.00 | 4.05 | 4.23 | 4.19 | 4.09 | | United Kingdom | 4.21 | 4.20 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 5.00 | 4.71 | 4.31 | Exchange Rates | | | USD1= | | 06 Oct 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | Sep 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | Japan | 101 | 105 | 110 | 112 | 115 | 118 | 104 | 112 | | United Kingdom (£1=) | 1.74 | 1.89 | 1.71 | 1.61 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.96 | 1.65 | | EUR1= | | 06 Oct 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | Sep 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 1.35 | 1.53 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.30 | 1.37 | 1.55 | 1.37 | | United Kingdom | 0.78 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.83 | Source: SG Economics & Strategy teams |
  | GROWTH/INFLATION FORECAST TABLE
| Real GDP | Inflation | | Annual growth rate, % | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | | World (current $ weights) | 3.9 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 3.7 | | World (PPP weights) | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.3 | | Industrialised countries (PPP) | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 2.6 | | Emerging countries (PPP) | 7.7 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 8.5 | 6.3 | | USA | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.3 | | Japan | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.9 | 1.5 | | Canada | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.4 | | Australia | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | | New Zealand | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | | EU 27 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | | Euro zone | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | | France | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3.4 | 2.1 | | Germany | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | | Italy | 1.4 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | | Netherlands | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | | Spain | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 2.5 | | Denmark | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 | | Norway | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 2.7 | | Sweden | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 2.7 | | Switzerland | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.5 | | UK | 3.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 2.8 | | East. Europe | 7.1 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 11 | 7.5 | | Russia | 7.2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 11 | 13 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 14 | 9.5 | | Total Asia ex Japan | 8.5 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | | China | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 4.0 | | HK | 8.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 5.0 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 3.5 | | India | 7.9 | 9.1 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 11 | 8.5 | | Indonesia | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 10 | 13 | 6.4 | 11 | 8.0 | | S. Korea | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 3.0 | | Malaysia | 7.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | | Philippines | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 7.0 | 5.0 | | Singapore | 9.0 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | | Taïwan | 6.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | | Thailand | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | | Vietnam | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 23 | 18 | | Latam | 6.0 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | | Brazil | 5.7 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | | Mexico | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 |
|
|
Log out
