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RATE FORECAST TABLE
 Interest Rates | | | Key central bank rates | | 29 May 08 | Sep 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.50 | 5.05 | 2.34 | 2.56 | | Japan | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.47 | 0.50 | 0.81 | | Euro Zone | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.85 | 4.00 | 4.00 | | United Kingdom | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | 4.25 | 5.51 | 5.12 | 4.47 | | 10 year bond yields (local market convention) | | 29 May 08 | Sep 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 4.03 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 4.50 | 4.63 | 3.79 | 4.31 | | Japan | 1.77 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.68 | 1.61 | 2.00 | | Euro Zone | 4.37 | 4.30 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 4.60 | 4.23 | 4.14 | 4.47 | | United Kingdom | 4.96 | 4.90 | 4.60 | 4.80 | 5.20 | 5.00 | 4.71 | 5.07 | Exchange Rates | | | USD1= | | 29 May 08 | Sep 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | Japan | 105 | 100 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 118 | 102 | 103 | | United Kingdom (£1=) | 1.97 | 1.95 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 1.84 | 2.00 | 1.97 | 1.85 | | EUR1= | | 29 May 08 | Sep 08 | Dec 08 | Mar 09 | Jun 09 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 1.56 | 1.58 | 1.60 | 1.55 | 1.45 | 1.37 | 1.56 | 1.48 | | United Kingdom | 0.79 | 0.81 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 0.79 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.80 | Source: SG Economics & Strategy teams |
  | GROWTH FORECAST TABLE
| | | | Annual growth rate, % | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | | World | 4.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.9 | | Industrialised countries | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | | USA | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 2.9 | | Canada | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | | Australia | 3.4 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | | New Zealand | 3.8 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.5 | | Japan | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 1.5 | | EU 27 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.4 | | EU 15 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | | Zone euro | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.2 | | France | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 | | Germany | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | | Italy | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 2.3 | | Netherlands | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | | Spain | 5.1 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | | Denmark | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | | Norway | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | | Sweden | 4.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.5 | | Switzerland | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | | UK | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 | | Poland | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 0.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | | Hungary | 5.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 8.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | | Czech Rep. | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | | Slovakia | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 10 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 4.0 | | Romania | 2.1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 15 | 12 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 5.0 | | Emerging countries | 6.1 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 5.6 | | Ex China | 5.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 6.0 | | Total Asia | 6.9 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.7 | | China | 8.4 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 1.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 4.5 | | Asian NICs ex China | 6.7 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | | HK | 8.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.0 | -2.6 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | | Indonesia | 5.3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 11 | 13 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 6.5 | | S. Korea | 8.5 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 3.0 | | Malaysia | 8.9 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | | Philippines | 6.0 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | | Singapore | 10 | -2.4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 3.5 | | Taïwan | 5.8 | -2.2 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | -0.3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | | Thailand | 4.8 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 4.5 | | Other Asia | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.3 | | Latam | 4.0 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 11 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | | Brazil | 4.3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 15 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 4.0 | | Mexico | 6.6 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.5 | | Argentina | -0.8 | -4.4 | -10.9 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 13 | 4.4 | 9.6 | 11 | 8.8 | 12 | 10 | | Chile | 4.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | | Colombia | 2.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | | Venezuela | 3.7 | 3.4 | -8.9 | -7.8 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 31 | 22 | 16 | 14 | 18 | 19 | 19 | | Peru | 3.0 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 | | Eastern Europe | 6.9 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 10 | 6.7 |
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