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RATE FORECAST TABLE
 Interest Rates | | | Key central bank rates | | 29 May 09 | Sep 09 | Dec 09 | Mar 10 | Jun 10 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 5.05 | 2.08 | 0.25 | | Japan | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 0.10 | | Euro Zone | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 3.85 | 3.88 | 1.31 | | United Kingdom | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 5.51 | 4.68 | 0.69 | | 10 year bond yields (local market convention) | | 29 May 09 | Sep 09 | Dec 09 | Mar 10 | Jun 10 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 3.61 | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 4.63 | 3.64 | 2.77 | | Japan | 1.49 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 1.68 | 1.49 | 1.31 | | Euro Zone | 3.60 | 3.00 | 2.85 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 4.23 | 4.00 | 3.00 | | United Kingdom | 3.74 | 3.15 | 3.05 | 3.30 | 3.55 | 5.00 | 4.48 | 3.11 | Exchange Rates | | | USD1= | | 29 May 09 | Sep 09 | Dec 09 | Mar 10 | Jun 10 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | Japan | 96 | 95 | 100 | 105 | 105 | 118 | 103 | 94 | | United Kingdom (£1=) | 1.61 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.54 | 1.58 | 2.00 | 1.85 | 1.54 | | EUR1= | | 29 May 09 | Sep 09 | Dec 09 | Mar 10 | Jun 10 | 2007 ave | 2008 ave | 2009 ave | | USA | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.42 | 1.45 | 1.37 | 1.47 | 1.36 | | United Kingdom | 0.87 | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.92 | 0.68 | 0.80 | 0.89 | Source:Central Bank rates - SG Economics; FX and Bond forecasts - Fixed income and fx strategy teams |
  | GROWTH/INFLATION FORECAST TABLE
| Real GDP | Inflation | | Annual growth rate, % | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | | World (current $ weights) | 4.7 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | -2.4 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | | World (PPP weights) | 3.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | -1.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 2.6 | | Industrialised countries (PPP) | 3.7 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | -3.7 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | -0.2 | 1.0 | | Emerging countries (PPP) | 5.2 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 1.5 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 4.4 | | USA | 3.4 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | -2.6 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 3.8 | -0.8 | 1.1 | | Japan | 3.8 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | -0.7 | -7.0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.4 | -1.4 | -0.3 | | Canada | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | -2.5 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 2.0 | | Australia | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.5 | -0.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 2.3 | | New Zealand | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 3.1 | -0.5 | -3.5 | -1.0 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | | EU 27 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | -3.6 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 1.4 | | Euro zone | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | -4.2 | 0.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | | France | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | -2.9 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 1.3 | | Germany | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | -5.6 | 0.8 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 0.2 | 0.9 | | Italy | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.1 | 1.5 | -1.0 | -4.8 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 1.6 | | Netherlands | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 2.0 | -4.4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | | Spain | 3.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | -3.5 | -0.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 4.1 | -0.4 | 0.6 | | Denmark | 4.4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 1.7 | -1.1 | -2.5 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | | Norway | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | -0.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | | Sweden | 3.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 2.7 | -0.5 | -3.5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3.5 | -0.3 | 1.1 | | Switzerland | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | -2.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 2.4 | -0.4 | 0.7 | | UK | 5.2 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | -3.4 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.5 | | East. Europe | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 5.1 | -3.2 | 1.6 | 0.1 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 11 | 8.2 | 6.6 | | Russia | 1.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | -4.9 | 2.0 | 8.6 | 11 | 13 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 14 | 14 | 10.0 | | Total Asia ex Japan | 2.1 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 15 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 0.5 | 2.8 | | China | 6.1 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 9.4 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | -1.0 | 2.5 | | HK | 5.2 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.7 | -3.5 | 1.0 | 7.9 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 2.0 | | India | 6.9 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 9.1 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 0.0 | 4.0 | | Indonesia | 8.4 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 6.2 | 10 | 13 | 6.3 | 10 | 8.0 | 4.0 | | S. Korea | 6.7 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | -3.0 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 | | Malaysia | 8.0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 4.7 | -4.0 | 1.0 | -2.6 | 1.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.8 | | Philippines | 5.3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.6 | -0.5 | 1.0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 6.3 | | Singapore | 8.5 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 9.0 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 1.1 | -8.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 0.0 | | Taïwan | 8.9 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 0.4 | -5.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 3.5 | -0.5 | 1.5 | | Thailand | 6.0 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.7 | -3.0 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 5.5 | -0.7 | -1.4 | | Vietnam | 10 | -2.4 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 0.5 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 23 | 8.6 | 8.8 | | Latam | 5.8 | -2.2 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.2 | -1.3 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 | | Brazil | 4.8 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 5.1 | -0.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 4.2 | | Mexico | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | -3.7 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
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